John Paxson released the guillotine on Scott Skiles today after a disappointing start to the season.

While making the move on Christmas Eve looks bad, from a basketball schedule point of view, it was a now or never decision. The Bulls are going to win at a better rate than they have been, the January schedule will guarantee that, and if Paxson determined that Skiles’ fiery, piece of garbage personality and inability to work with big men was a hindrance to the Bulls, he had to make the move now. I for one am pleased for I have never been a big fan of Skiles, but I don’t think his being fired will make a huge difference right away. I don’t think the ups and downs of Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng are a result of Skiles’ style. I don’t think it makes Tyrus Thomas  smarter, Gray quicker, Wallace healthier, or Noah more skilled. Skiles has a lot of flaws as a coach, but he was a smart basketball mind who on game nights probably did far more good than bad for the Bulls.

That said, I think some of the players are doing cartwheels right now. Instead of having to be exiled to the Knicks or Oklahoma City like Eddy and Tyson were, he is getting his second chance with the Bulls. Thomas needs to make the most of it. He needs to be smarter, but players respond to coaching differently. Skiles always had Tyrus on a short leash, and it is possible that part of Thomas’ mental problems stemmed from being afraid to make a mistake. While I could see a change help Tyrus make a big step in his development, it could also just allow him to continue to be dumb without being reprimanded. While I think Thomas will be happy with the move, whether it is for the best is anyone’s guess. 

Another player who I think is happy is Ben Wallace. I have no evidence to back this thought up, but I do believe that Ben Wallace and Skiles were on the verge of a major fight. Wallace has been beat up and tried to play through it and was punished for it. Don’t get me wrong, Wallace has been bad, but he’s been banished to the bench in games where he has played well. I have a hard time that he is so washed up that he can’t be better than he has showed. I know that the ankle and foot injuries have really hindered his leaping ability, but I do not think that is the entire story. I’m not acusing him of quitting on Skiles or dogging it, but something doesn’t add up with his rapid decline. Chicago has way too much money wrapped up in Wallace to not find out if a new coach will breathe new life into him. The way I look at it, if Wallace is completely washed up, they won’t be able to deal him and are out the $40M that they still owe him. As he is playing right now, he might have one of the most immoveable contracts in the NBA. If, however, they get some return on their investment in Wallace by spending a couple million more for Skiles to go away, then they have to do it.  

I still think that the greatest problem facing the Bulls is the number of players who are non-threats offensively. I think teams have figured out how to handle the Bulls drive-and-kick game by cheating off the bigs and Sefolosha and staying extended on Deng and Gordon. While Skiles being gone might be the best thing for Tyrus Thomas’ long-term development, he isn’t going to go from a bad shooter to a good one over night. Hopefully, whoever they bring in will figure out a rotation and style that allows them to score at a better clip against teams who are interested in stopping them.

What I fear, and I hope I am wrong, is that Paxson made the move because he felt Skiles was screwing with his picks, namely Thabo, Noah, and Thomas, and whoever he brings in will basically be ordered to force feed them minutes. For me, this would be disasterous. I don’t think that Skiles has been wrong in limiting their minutes. The blame I put on Skiles isn’t in his eye for talent, but in his ability to develop it and communicate what he wants from his players. As far as X’s and O’s and identifying strengths and weakness of a player, Skiles was great, but that isn’t as big a role in coaching at this level as communicating with players and teaching. I can’t think of very many upper echelon teams who would be playing poorly skilled rookies and second year players big minutes, and if the Bulls make a big run, not just a move towards the 7-8 seed and a sweep at the hands of Boston or Detroit, I don’t think it will be because Noah, Thomas, and Sefolosha are each playing twenty minutes per game. 

The season is 24 games old, and while seventy percent of the season is left, the Bulls 2007-08 campaign can already be chalked up as a disappointment. This was the year where John Paxson spent the offseason refusing to ante up in negotiations to get Kobe or KG because he was going to win with his guys playing his way. Well, he was wrong. The Bulls are 9-15 and have been embarassed on an almost weekly basis when a legitimate playoff team blows them out of the gym. The Celtics just destroyed them last night.

Don’t get me wrong, the Bulls will make the playoffs, a soft month of January should push them back around .500 and many NBA observers will forget that the Timberwolves and Hawks aren’t who they will see in April, but regardless, the Bulls are caught in NBA hell. They aren’t good enough to compete for an NBA title or even the East. Unless one or two of their Big 3 get hurt, the Bulls have zero chance against the Celtics in a seven game series. Bye bye hopes of June, but at the same time, aren’t bad enough to get a draft pick who will put them over the top. Michael Beasley is not walking through that door. And starting next year, the Bulls will not only be stuck in the middle of the NBA, but also be really expensive if they hold to their guns that they will match any offers on Deng and Gordon. They are the Spurs without Duncan or the Pistons without Rasheed. And to throw salt on the wounds, KG is leading the Celtics to the top of the league, Kobe is once again carrying a mediocre cast towards the top of the West, LaMarcus Aldridge has Portland well ahead of schedule, and Tyson Chandler is averaging 12-12. What can I say, ’tis not the season.

It is hard to look at the Bulls with a 6-12 record, with half their wins coming against the Hawks and Bobcats, and have much reason for optimism. Certainly a weekend split is no big accomplishment, especially when they needed Ben Wallace to hit 8-9 from the line in order to do so, but subtle changes in the rotation are starting to show. As a team, they have adjusted to being a miserable team from behind the arc by taking a couple steps in and taking the two or going to the bucket and getting fouled. This enabled them to stay competitive eventhough Ben Gordon has a miserable shooting weekend and Deng was held in check by Boston. Ben Wallace appears to be moving much better leading me to believe that his early season funk was mostly a result of trying to rush back from his ankle injury. It isn’t much, but is a sign of hope.

Additionally, for the Bulls to bench Tyrus Thomas in favor of Joe Smith, Andres Nocioni, and occassionally Joakim Noah speaks volumes. He was the #2 overall pick, chosen instead of LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, or Brandon Roy, and he isn’t working out. They tried to force feed him into the starting lineup when he does not fit what they do. For all the highlight reel dunks and blocks he can provide, Thomas still looks lost in the offense. He still can consistently hit a 15 footer when left alone, and apparently does not know all the plays and sets. Thomas will eventually get another chance to play, but if the past two games are any indication, maybe they shouldn’t. While Smith is aging and not as athletic as he once was, he can still give 20-25 minutes of solid basketball. Nocioni is showing that he is at his best as an undersized power forward who can spread the floor and pester bigger opponents. And while Noah lacks many of the same skills that limit Thomas, he appears willing to be a hustling, scrapping pest. Noah can’t shoot or dribble. When he gets the ball on a kick out or reversal, I wish someone would just run to him and take it back. Yet somehow, Noah is still been a positive for the Bulls in their past five games. He keeps balls alive, rebounds, and dives all over the floor. While he is much to weak to be a decent finisher, he is hitting a good percentage of his side-spinning free throws. It is unlikely that he will ever be good enough to be a starter on a contender, but sooner than I would have thought, Noah will be able to be a solid big off the bench. He appears willing to be another Anderson Varejao, which isn’t exactly what one would want out of a lottery pick, but in the right situation can be of use to a team trying to compete in April and May. The Bulls are in a tough spot with Thomas. He has talent, and if the Bulls give up on him will catch on somewhere else. By benching him and Skiles openly ripping him, they have killed his trade value. It is a shame that the Bulls organization have not yet learned how to handle and develop big men.

Lastly, Skiles has seemingly accepted the fact that Duhon needs to be the first guard off the bench. Hinrich will eventually fix whatever is making him a brutal point guard. I cannot believe that he has completely lost it. In each of his first four years, his numbers and overall efficiency improved, and while he might have peaked, this kind of drop in overall productivity is incomprehensible. Other than the Hawks triumverate of point guards, I don’t think there has been a team with worse production out of that spot. I have to believe he’ll right the ship, but until then the Bulls need to lean on Duhon when Hinrich isn’t any good. Sefolosha has showed that he isn’t the answer as a big guard. He can’t shoot or run the point, which means he can’t ever be a major contributor. Hopefully with the Sonics, Pacers, and Knicks coming up Hinrich can take advantage of poor defensive teams and start his turn around.

The Bulls won two games against teams that really didn’t care. The Hawks game was brutal to watch. Without Acie Law, Atlanta has decided to take a vacation. They looked at the likelihood of playing Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue 48 minutes at the point and decided to boycott trying. Marvin Williams didn’t show up. Josh Smith was disinterested. The Bulls should have opened it up much earlier than they did because nobody on Atlanta even tried to stop them off the dribble. 

The Bobcats look like a team that wants to run and gun, but don’t realize at some point they at least have to give the impression that they can play defense. Even the Warriors and Suns know that at some point they need to get a hand in the shooters face. The Bulls got any and every shot they wanted. I’d like to believe that Gordon and Deng could continue to combine for 63, but the schedule just does not have enough games against teams from the Southeast for that to be realistic. Also, almost magically, the sight of Primoz Brezec limping around gave Ben Wallace a shot of adrenaline. It was turn-back-the-clock night for Wallace. 10 points? 19 rebounds? 5 steals? 4 blocks? Oh, so that is the kind of performance that got him the monster contract. Somebody has to get MJ off the golf course and inform him that his team ought to go small with Okafor at C, and have Wallace and Dudley start at the forward spot. They can’t keep trotting Brezec out there and have him give an empty stat line. It isn’t even debateable whether he is the worst starting center in the NBA. He brings nothing to the team. He used to be decent, but now is just awful.

Dallas is coming to town on Monday and should be a good measuring stick. While the Bulls haven’t looked great, they do have a two game win streak. The Mavs have lost a few games that they should not have because they have gone back to not playing defense. When they won 67, they were an underrated team defensively. For some reason, they haven’t shown any urgency to get a stop to this point. While the Mavericks have already proven all that they can in the regular season, and for them the regular season is just an 82-game tune up, I cannot help but wonder whether this level of lethargy will come back to haunt them. 

It should be interesting to see how the Bulls will try to match up with Dirk and Howard. My guess would be that they’ll have Deng on Howard, which is a tough matchup for both. Howard’s athleticism causes Luol to work on both ends of the court, and Deng’s length has given Howard problems. I’m just wondering, are they going to put Nocioni and Tyrus on Dirk? I don’t know who on the Bulls I would feel comfortable guarding Dirk other than Deng, but I really shutter at the thought of what Dirk will do to Tyrus and Nocioni. Noce is giving up half a foot to Dirk, and Tyrus is simply going to get schooled until he gets in foul trouble. This should make the game simple. Can the Bulls getting enough good looks to outscore them, because I don’t think they’ll be able to conistently stopping them.